Was 2015 the Bonus Peak or Will 2016 Surpass It?

March 7, 2016

In the private equity and venture capital world, as with most any other industries, money talks.  More so than in most other industries, in the private equity and venture capital industries, money not only talks, but often controls the conversation.

The current discussion point here is – can 2016 bonus pay beat what appears to have been a white hot 2015? Let’s take a look.

Some Background

Before getting into the discussion point, here’s some background. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their monthly accounting of job growth by industry in the U.S.  Employment growth in the financial industry came in at a quite healthy +142K.  The 142K growth was a slight deceleration from the recent peak of +156 in August 2015 (figure 2).

Overall, on the employment front, financial industry employment is performing fairly well.  It’s certainly not the dot-com bubble or the housing bubble, but healthy nonetheless.  Both figures confirm that’s there’s still lots of room for employment growth in the industry, with employment in the industry still below where it peaked at in the previous economic peak.

Employment FIRE

Financial Employment

The Wage Picture

With the employment background established, here’s a look at average wages. Interestingly, in contrast to what we’ve seen in the economy-wide average wage figures, financial industry wage growth js much stronger. Year-over-year percentage change in average hourly earnings in the financial industry is approaching 4%, well ahead of the low 2s for most workers.

Average Wage Growth

Looking at Bonus Pay in 2015 vs. 2014

With the background now given, here’s a look at bonus pay from 1986 to estimated 2015, with a potential forecast for 2016 and its confidence intervals. As indicated, 2015 saw a jump of an estimated $1.5 billion over 2014 to $30 billion.  The 2016 statistical confidence intervals are between $26 billion and $34 billion.  Wide, very wide.

Wall Street Bonuses ($billions)

Average Bonus Pay

The total picture is somewhat similar to the average picture, given below. Overall, some wide variations through the years.

Average Wall Street Bonus

Shifting to the Job Search Digest Results

As mentioned, results from Job Search Digest’s survey indicates a white hot 2015 although the overall bonus earned varied widely – with those at the higher levels often earning more in bonus than in base pay.

PE Comp Rpt Figure 3PE Comp Rpt Figure 4

 

We have to wonder…can 2016 beat this?

Conclusion

Early indications of pay in the private equity industry point to a very strong 2015.  Bonus pay continued to move past previous ceilings. The question now: is 2015 the peak for bonuses?  Can 2016 beat a white hot 2015?

The most accurate answer at this point in the game is – perhaps.

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