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PE & VC News

If you are in any way involved in the angel side of private equity investing, you’re likely well aware of the debate regarding the usefulness of crowdfunding, and specifically private equity crowdfunding.  Crowdfunding exists because there is a general void in the marketplace between what angel investors are willing to, and able to, fund and what larger scale private equity firms and institutional investors are willing to look at.

With revenue of less than $10 million annually, entrepreneurs in many industries, with the exception of certain technologies, are too small to reach the larger private equity firms and generally don’t have sufficient assets to issue debt.  Essentially, a decent number of entrepreneurs fall between the angel investing arena and the size of deals venture capital/private equity firms might consider.  Within the past couple of years, the solution to this investor-entrepreneur matching problem has been partly addressed by a new form of investing: private equity crowdfunding.

The debate: is private equity crowdfunding here to stay as a innovative new way of financing start-ups and business job creation, or is it a trap luring unsuspecting investors into higher than usual risks on unproven businesses?  The question is tough to give a “no” answer to, for one main reason that momentum is on private equity crowdfunding’s side, with such new firms as CircleUp, RelayFund, or MicroVentures livelihoods depending on crowdfunding’s success.

Private equity crowdfunding proponents point to at least two efficiencies gained by their services. First, by screening deal flow (for instance, CircleUp only accepts 2 percent of companies that apply), it limits the number of poor deals an angel capital or private equity investor sees.

Second, by bringing deals online, it expands the number of potentially profitable investments that angel investors may not have seen offline.  Essentially, instead of choosing one investment from the limited presentations an angel investor sees, an angel investor’s opportunity set increases.

On the opposite side of the debate are (and perhaps unsurprisingly) individuals concerned with regulations, in particular the heightened problems crowdfunding places on attorneys responsible for ensuring compliance with reporting requirements.  In addition to the regulatory concerns, others appear more concerned about smaller investors (the paternalistic sort of view).  Basically, some fear that smaller investors will be enamored with the charismatic presentation or invest in companies they simply want to see succeed regardless of whether the charismatic presenter or liked business has the highest chance of turning into a successful investment.  With a few years behind us already, the initial paternalistic concerns don’t appear to be a problem, although, we’re only a few years into this potentially disruptive industry.

Overall, private equity crowdfunding has the potential to be a game-changer in the private equity and angel capital investing arena, with at least $50 billion of annual private company investments on the line.  We’ll see if it turn out to be a boon to entrepreneurship, business growth, and job creation while simultaneously benefiting all types of investors or whether it turns out to be simply a fad.

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If you’re a true private equity believer, the following chart has got to be beautiful.

The figure shows the most recent GDP figures by the three broad expenditure categories (which, excludes net exports): consumption, private domestic investment, and government expenditure.

In the political budgeting realm, there is no bigger issue than the debate over the short-term costs and long-term benefits of the only category with negative quarter over quarter growth – government spending.

On the one side of the debate are academic economists and government control advocates who argue that government spending adds more to the economy than it takes away, and thus such individuals lament the decline in the costs of government operations.

On the other side of this discussion are professionals well aware of the detriment government activity does to generally well-functioning markets.  Professionals with understanding of the natural state of markets generally arrive at the opposite conclusion: government regulation and general activity takes away more from the current and future generations than the good it could possibly help materialize right now.

Now, these generalized straw-man statements have a good deal of debate behind them.  Forgoing the endless debate, the question here is:

Why should private equity professionals find it beautiful?  After all, the financial press is full of stories decrying the risks associated with federal spending cuts?  (As a side note, one should view the spending cuts as cost reductions rather than some sort of draconian spending reductions).  At the extreme, some seemingly credible economists think prolonged spending cuts (also known as austerity measures in Europe) could send the U.S. economy and even perhaps the world’s economy into a recession.

The simply answer to the posed question is that true private equity professionals should find the GDP chart beautiful because it generally discredits the “government is the center of the universe” idea. There are at least two ways that the GDP by major sector chart makes this point.

The first is that it shows a decoupling of growth by sector, something long understood by unfettered free market thinkers. The chart shows the most recent five quarters, four of which show a decline in government costs (a good thing).  Over the same period, growth is positive in private consumption and investment.

Now, some government regulation theorists and cost increase advocates will simply say that growth would be higher now absent the savings in the costs of government.  The simple counter answer to this line of thought is simply that there’s really no evidence behind it.  And, if an academic tries to find some correlation, the more likely culprit behind below trend growth is the recent tax burden increases and lack of respect among certain political figures for allowing markets to function freely.

The second beautiful thing the chart shows is something deeper, something only appreciated by individuals with a care for our children’s future.  The beauty is a signal, a signal that shows to kids and others that the costs of government are on the way down, hopefully on a long-term basis.  This is better for our kids in a number of ways, such as the signal it sends that government employment isn’t a good career path and that the economy’s productivity will likely be higher because of a shift in employment away from the generally unproductive government sector towards products useful in a voluntary market.

Overall, private equity professionals, at least in the vast majority, understand these principles and thus find the GDP chart to be a thing of beauty.

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Pitchbook has released its Q2 2013 private equity conditions report.  The report covers investment trends by deal size, industry, and region. Overall, as measured by the number of deals and size of deals, PE deal making slowed down in the first quarter of 2013.

The number of deals declined by 26 percent, from 500 in the first quarter of 2012 to 355 in the first quarter of 2013.  The decline comes off a fairly strong fourth quarter, where deals, at 564, were the highest since the fourth quarter of 2010.

In dollar terms, the recent figures almost represent a show of caution, reversing the four year general improvement in the private equity deal flow.  The $52 million count represents the lowest investment figure since the economy was slowly recovering from the recession in the fourth quarter of 2009.

 

Private Equity Deal Making Also Slowed According to Virtually Every Industry

The largest year-over-year decline from 2012 Q1 to 2013 Q1 occurred in the Information Technology industry, down about 71 percent from Q4 of 2012.  The 74 percent decline represents a drop from a strong 2012 deal making year for the industry, comprising approximately $535 million in U.S. deals.  The softening in the Information Technology industry is interesting given the leading indicator nature of the industry.

Following Information Technology is the Healthcare industry, declining by about 63 percent.  The 63 percent declined occurred on top of a 54 percent decline in Q4 2012.

The third largest decliner is the Business to Business category, down 62 percent from Q1 2012.  Over the prior three years, Business to Business deals represent the largest dollar volume at about $1.5 billion; a drop in this industry is therefore quite important to aggregate figures.  The second quarter will likely give further indication if the Q1 figures are simply statistical noise or something more worrisome.

On the other end of the growth spectrum, Business to Consumer came in up about 83 percent.  Growth in Business to Consumer deals is important in that the categorization represents the third largest dollar volume area since 2010.  The growth also represents a reversal of a three year downward trend in the industry.

Coming in second for growth is the Energy sector at 10 percent.  This growth represents a welcomed bump up from 2012, a year that was not very conducive to private equity deal making, where deals declined from $323 million in 2011 to an estimated $171.5 million in 2012.  Confidence in the Energy sector is generally a sign of confidence in overall outlook of the economy, although it could be more a sign of consumer demand shift.

The third largest year-over-year growth figure is the Materials & Resources industry.  The industry is coming off a healthy 2012, and for 2013, combined with strength in the Energy sector, means there is confidence in the non-cyclical component of the economy.

Overall, private equity deal making slowed in the first quarter of 2013, with the weakness showing up in the Business to Business, Healthcare, and Information Technology industries.  Pitchbook’s report wasn’t all bad news, however, with reported strength in the Business to Consumer, Energy, and Materials & Resources industries.  Longer term trends should become more apparent as the second quarter progresses.

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Are Zombie Private Equity Funds a Problem?

April 15, 2013

Zombie private equity funds represent investment funds where money is tied up for years, with the manager having little to no profitable investment prospects, yet managers are still imposing fees on the tied up money. According to the Wall Street Journal, of the 10,000 or so private equity funds founded in the past decade, about [...]

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Disadvantages of Private Equity Emerging Managers

April 1, 2013

Private equity emerging managers face many disadvantages on the road to success.  This article discusses seven of them. Before addressing the disadvantages of private equity emerging managers, here’s a brief review from last week of the advantages emerging managers have (further discussion is available here). Private equity emerging managers have the ability to make potentially [...]

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Bond Ratings, the Sequester, and Private Equity

February 25, 2013

With the sequester set to provide some sanity to the U.S. debt situation, financial professionals and the public at large are questioning how the cost savings (reducing unnecessary federal spending) are going to affect connected political entities. That’s exactly what professionals at bond rating agencies have been doing recently, with, for example, Moody’s recently releasing [...]

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Private Equity Employment and the JOBS Act

February 18, 2013

The Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act of 2011, originally proposed by President Obama and passed by Congress on April 5, 2011, changed regulations related to advertising, marketing, and investor relations for, among others, private equity managers.  The general thinking is that by reducing the red-tape associated with investments and business capital, employment growth will [...]

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Sequestration and the Consensus Private Equity View

February 11, 2013

In about two weeks the federal government is set to begin the first stages of reducing the costs of government.  In everyday language, the actions are known as “sequestration” or “budget cuts.” The issue, of course, is a hot button, in that a number of political analysts, policy experts, economists, and investors appear to believe [...]

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How Did Private Equity Employment Compare in 2012

February 4, 2013

The numbers are in.  Among the three classifications of employment — private equity, investment banking, and the hedge fund industry — which industry would you guess performed the best among the three? Well, overall private equity saw the largest increase in employment, growing by about 1k over their 2011 tally.  In contrast, hedge fund and [...]

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Private Equity Employment and Interest Rates

January 28, 2013

As everyone knows, interest rates matter, and, depending upon the sector of the financial industry, interest rates matter a lot.  With the Federal Reserve recently adopting the “Evans Rule”, which effectively states that monetary policy will remain unchanged until inflation expectations rise above 2.5 percent and/or the unemployment rate drops below 6.5 percent, one might [...]

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